Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.461613 0.532510 0.609180 0.698069 0.798093 0.906969 1.034248
2025-06-01 0.367205 0.462356 0.573058 0.710644 0.876274 1.068414 1.307294
2025-06-08 0.292270 0.400280 0.534968 0.713563 0.942228 1.223083 1.591750
2025-06-15 0.246824 0.366366 0.525549 0.749713 1.053342 1.445895 1.986569
2025-06-22 0.191996 0.309956 0.478042 0.729632 1.090072 1.580133 2.287271
2025-06-29 0.152655 0.267782 0.443047 0.721202 1.141371 1.740019 2.641561
2025-07-06 0.120412 0.229695 0.407410 0.706119 1.180993 1.888402 2.997414
2025-07-13 0.102184 0.210674 0.398084 0.729811 1.281651 2.136435 3.523984
2025-07-20 0.083907 0.187415 0.377564 0.732060 1.348839 2.341353 4.007686
2025-07-27 0.071196 0.171676 0.367303 0.750056 1.444003 2.600039 4.600625
2025-08-03 0.060787 0.158042 0.358396 0.768964 1.542946 2.874817 5.245489
2025-08-10 0.048069 0.135950 0.328640 0.743888 1.560183 3.014135 5.680018
2025-08-17 0.036628 0.113779 0.294931 0.707162 1.554558 3.119809 6.080162
2025-08-24 0.029693 0.100654 0.278079 0.702186 1.609430 3.339852 6.702546
2025-08-31 0.023773 0.088206 0.259966 0.691320 1.651257 3.540750 7.310833
2025-09-07 0.020577 0.082628 0.257440 0.715316 1.768720 3.897350 8.238460
2025-09-14 0.015887 0.070390 0.234705 0.687534 1.771549 4.031204 8.759528
2025-09-21 0.012615 0.061481 0.218642 0.672943 1.801327 4.221663 9.406423
2025-09-28 0.009883 0.053202 0.202069 0.653678 1.817453 4.385319 10.014424
2025-10-05 0.008535 0.049846 0.199607 0.671731 1.924194 4.749526 11.054968
2025-10-12 0.007024 0.044953 0.190857 0.670594 1.983936 5.017959 11.920240
2025-10-19 0.006023 0.041918 0.187555 0.684668 2.083807 5.383978 13.017949
2025-10-26 0.005191 0.039251 0.184832 0.700040 2.189092 5.771549 14.190347